Just eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
